"Abiogenesis is based on faith, contrary to conventional wisdom" - Yockey



"It is concluded that belief in currently accepted scenarios of spontaneous abiogenesis is based on faith, contrary to conventional wisdom." - Yockey


The article "A calculation of the probability of spontaneous biogenesis by information theory" by Hubert P. Yockey is a seminal work in the field of abiogenesis. In it, Yockey uses information theory to calculate the probability of the spontaneous formation of a biomolecule with sufficient complexity to be considered "living".

Yockey's calculation is based on the following assumptions:

  • The primitive soup contained a mixture of amino acids, nucleotides, and other organic molecules.

  • These molecules could interact with each other to form polymers.

  • The polymers could then self-assemble into more complex structures.

  • The probability of a particular polymer forming was proportional to its information content.

Using these assumptions, Yockey calculated that the probability of a polymer with the complexity of cytochrome c forming by chance was about 10^61. This means that it would take on the order of 10^65 years for a single molecule of cytochrome c to form spontaneously.

Yockey's work has been influential in the field of abiogenesis, and it has led to a greater understanding of the challenges involved in the spontaneous formation of life.

In addition to its mathematical calculations, Yockey's article also makes a number of important conceptual contributions to the field of abiogenesis. First, Yockey argues that the concept of "negentropy" is not helpful in understanding the origin of life. Negentropy is the amount of order in a system, and it is often used to explain how life can arise from non-living matter. However, Yockey argues that negentropy is not a physical quantity, and that it cannot be used to explain the origin of life.

Second, Yockey argues that the origin of life requires the generation of "complexity". Complexity is the amount of information in a system, and it is this information that allows life to function. Yockey argues that the spontaneous formation of complex molecules is extremely unlikely, and that the origin of life must have involved some kind of non-random process.

Third, Yockey argues that the origin of life must have been a multi-step process. He argues that it is unlikely that all of the necessary components of life could have arisen spontaneously at the same time. Instead, Yockey believes that life arose through a series of small steps, each of which was more likely to occur than the spontaneous formation of a complex molecule.

Yockey's article is a challenging and thought-provoking work that has had a significant impact on the field of abiogenesis. His work has helped to clarify the challenges involved in the spontaneous formation of life, and it has led to a greater understanding of the possible mechanisms by which life could have arisen.

Article snippets:

Hubert P. Yockey

A calculation of the probability of spontaneous biogenesis by information theory

The Darwin-Oparin-Haldane “warm little pond” scenario for biogenesis is examined by using information theory to calculate the probability that an informational biomolecule of reasonable biochemical specificity, long enough to provide a genome for the “protobiont”, could have appeared in 109 years in the primitive soup

Certain old untenable ideas have served only to confuse the solution of the problem.

The number of cytochrome c sequences is about 3·8 × 10^61. The probability of selecting one such sequence at random is about 2·1 ×10−65

The primitive milieu will contain a racemic mixture of the biological amino acids and also many analogues and non-biological amino acids.

Geological evidence for the “warm little pond” is missing

Taking into account only the effect of the racemic mixture the longest genome which could be expected with 95 % confidence in 10^9 years corresponds to only 49 amino acid residues.

It is concluded that belief in currently accepted scenarios of spontaneous biogenesis is based on faith, contrary to conventional wisdom.





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